No country in the region has a more complex relationship with Iran than Saudi Arabia. The two nations are rivals for regional influence, separated by sectarian identity — Saudi Arabia is the center of Sunni Islam, Iran the primary patron of Shia political movements across the region — and by fundamentally different visions of regional order. The death of Khamenei and the ongoing Iranian-American-Israeli conflict is therefore being watched in Riyadh with intense attention.
Saudi Arabia has its own history of hostile relations with Iran, including the severing of diplomatic ties following the storming of Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran in 2016 and years of proxy conflict in Yemen, where Saudi forces have been fighting Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. The 2023 Chinese-brokered rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran restored diplomatic relations but left the underlying tensions largely unaddressed.
The current crisis creates both risks and opportunities for Saudi Arabia. A weakened, internally focused Iran is in some respects in Saudi Arabia’s interest, reducing the pressure from Iranian-backed proxies and potentially creating space for Saudi regional leadership. But an Iran driven toward nuclear weapons by existential pressure would be a far more dangerous adversary than the conventional military threat it poses today.
The Saudis are also attentive to the relationship between the United States and Iran’s potential successors. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s relationship with the Trump administration gives Riyadh some influence over American decision-making — influence that Saudi officials may seek to use in shaping the outcome of the current conflict and the succession process.
For all the complexity of their rivalry, Saudi Arabia and Iran have one fundamental interest in common: regional stability that allows both countries to develop their economies and project influence without the destabilizing effects of active armed conflict. Whether that shared interest can provide a basis for any form of engagement with Iran’s new leadership is a question that Saudi diplomats are presumably exploring.